BI Weekly No. 299

September 28th - October 4th, 2006

The BI Weekly archive is available on our website: www.burmaissues.org

Inside

Border

Burmese Plan Military Offensive Against Indian Rebels

International

Cuba Barred From UN Burma Briefing
ASEAN Members Push For Democracy In Burma
Back To Burma: UN Official Receives Invitation

* denotes BI commentary

The death toll in the Mandalay flood disaster has risen to at least 20, according to local residents. However one Mandalay journalist put the death toll at "at least 40". It's suspected more than 3,000 people have been affected by the floods, which have caused many of them to abandon their homes.

The water in parts of Mandalay is more than one meter deep. Residents have fled to high ground, some taking refuge in a community hall and schools. Local business and transportation have been disrupted by the floods. The chairman of Mandalay Division, Maj-Gen Khin Zaw, and other officials toured the disaster zone on Monday, and were expected again the next day. They told affected residents to move to safer ground.

The official media remains silent, and carries no reports of the catastrophe. Some residents claim the flooding was caused by the release of water from a dam near Mandalay .

" Mandalay flood toll tops 20", Shah Paung, Irrawaddy , Monday October 3, 2006.

Burma Takes Measures To Improve National ICT Standards

Burma is striving to improve public internet services and plans to introduce 400 public internet service centers in 324 townships within three years to facilitate communication links, according to local media. Some businessmen and companies relying on internet to run their businesses welcomed of the target to extend the ADSL installation to across the country, and hoped more would be done to improve the existing connections.

As the first phase of the project, 100 such centers, also known as the Public Access Centers (PAC), will be opened in the current fiscal year of 2006-07, the first year of the three-year project which began in April, the Myanmar Info-Tech disclosed. 50 PACs have been set up in such areas as Yangon, Mandalay , Pyinmana, Pyay, Magway, Muse, Myitky-ina, Monywa, Pathein and Taunggyi it reported.

Meanwhile, Burma has also launched an ICT development master plan under the Initiative for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Integration, aimed at narrowing the development gap among the regional members. Detailed programs to link international networks are also being carried out in accordance with the master plan drafted by the Myanmar Computer Federation (MCF). With the improvement of public internet services, the country sees a step closer towards ICT development, experts said.

" Myanmar strives to improve public internet services to push ICT development" Xinhua General News Service, Wednesday October 4, 2006.

While the international community has criticised the Sept 19 military coup in Thailand as undemocratic, the majority of the Thai people have supported it. According to one survey, more than 80% of Thais gave their approval. This surprises not only the international community, but also the Burmese next door. For most Burmese, coups are extremely frightening. In the 1988 coup in Burma , thousands of soldiers stormed the streets, arresting or killing anyone found outside. The sounds of military marching songs and gunshots rang through the air. A strict curfew severely limited people's ability to travel and carry out their business.

Unlike in Burma , the Thai coup happened without bloodshed and the coup leaders gave a detailed time-frame for transferring power back to a civilian government. They promised an interim government within two weeks and a newly elected government within a year, which has given credibility to their road map. In Burma , the 1988 coup leaders held an election two years later, refused to transfer power to the winners when their party lost, and are still in power today.

So far, the Burmese regime has tried to hide the news about the Thai coup. Only a tiny piece of information was reported in the regular foreign section of the state-controlled media that a coup recently took place in Thailand but no details were provided. The Burmese junta is clearly worried that the Thai coup will make them look bad in comparison. But many Burmese people and military officers are tuning in to foreign radio broadcasts to learn more about what is happening in Thailand .

Burmese have been struck by the friendly attitude of the Thai military toward the people. The coup leaders apologised for any inconvenience caused by the coup, and soldiers smile and willingly take pictures with delighted citizens. There were no intimidating military marching songs or images in the broadcasts, instead, only songs and images of the King. Neither was there a curfew imposed to disturb people's day-to-day life.

In addition, they have noted how the coup leaders have prioritised the economy by quickly choosing respected civilian experts to lead an economic advisory committee. They are not going to try to run the economy themselves, as the Burmese military has. As a result, the baht has remained strong, and investment and trade have barely been affected. But in Burma the economy has been getting worse and there have been annual increases in inflation since 1988.

Many Burmese, who have such high hopes for democracy, are sad that Thailand 's problems apparently could not be solved by political means and that the 1997 People's Constitution was abrogated after the coup. But, they may also be inspired by this coup which seems to reflect the Thai military's commitment to establishing a solid base for democracy to flourish in the future. This could be done: technically, by rewriting a better constitution and, conceptually, by promoting democracy education in Thai school curricula.

The Thai coup may cause the Burmese mid-level military officers, who were not involved in important decision-making during the 1988 coup, to reconsider that coup and the military rule in Burma . Perhaps this may lead to greater discontent within the armed forces at the sorry state of the country, and growing pressure on the regime to implement political and economic reform. At the same time, Burmese democracy activists feel that any new Thai government will be better than the Thaksin government because for the past five years Thai policy toward Burma was largely driven by Thaksin's personal business interests in the country. While previous Thai governments took an interest in the terrible human rights problems in Burma , Thaksin once said that he could understand why the Burmese generals detained Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi.

The Burmese people wish the Thais every success in their endeavour to establish a sustainable democratic system in Thailand . They would also like to see the ethnic Muslim insurgency in the South which was previously mismanaged by Thaksin resolved by political means, as has been suggested by coup leader Gen Sonthi and welcomed by the Muslim community leaders. They also hope that Thailand will serve as a positive example for Burma , which has been struggling for its own democracy and ethnic rights for decades.

”A Burmese perspective on the Thai coup" Win Min, Bangkok Post, Saturday 30 September, 2006.

Burmese Plan Military Offensive Against Indian Rebels

Burma is planning a major military operation to evict Indian separatists from its soil within a week, fuelling fears of heavy fighting in the north of that country, a rebel leader said earlier this week.

A senior guerrilla leader of the S.S. Khaplang faction said hundreds of Burmese soldiers were moving into areas dominated by the rebels. He alleged that India was assisting Burma by supplying it with military equipment and ammunition, and that NSCN-K cadres were ready to repulse the offensive. There were no immediate comments available to confirm the rebel claims of India sending weapons to the Myanmar junta to fight the rebels. There has been no immediate confirmation of any military offensive by Myanmar .

The rebels say they are seeking to protect their ethnic identities and allege the federal government has exploited the resources in this mineral, tea, timber, and oil-rich region. More than 50,000 people have lost their lives to insurgency in the north-east since India 's Independence in 1947.

" Burma set to strike Indian separatists", Times of India , Monday October 3, 2006.