On February 1, the day after the commemoration of the 56th anniversary of the Karen Revolution Day, the Karen National Union (KNU) announced that it is planning to resume peace talks with the ruling military government, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

David Taw, secretary of the KNU Foreign Affairs Department, confirmed that the SPDC was ready to talk and that the KNU will resume peace talks with the SPDC in the first week of March, in Moulmein.

The Karen people, as represented through by the KNU, are demanding self-determination and have been fighting the military government for over 50 years, since the end of the Second World War when the British left Burma.

Over five decades, the KNU has conducted five historical peace talks with a series of Burmese governments. No major agreements were reached. The distrust of the Burmese government among the KNU has been a major obstacle to successful negotiations. The SPDC has used previous talks as an opportunity to build up military forces. For example, when the last peace talks broke down at the end of 1996, the Army launched a major offensive against two KNU's Southern districts, displacing thousands and forces thousands of others to become refugees in Thailand.

The ceasefire has been 50 per cent beneficial and 50 per cent detrimental

Last January, a delegation of the KNU led by Deputy Chairman General Saw Bo Mya, met with former Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt in Rangoon and reached a "gentleman's ceasefire agreement". Unlike previous talks, this time the agreement was reached without demands from the SPDC that the KNU enter the legal fold or calls from the KNU that Rangoon declare a nationwide ceasefire, issues which had been serious sticking points for both sides six years ago.

The hope generated by last year's talks faded in October when General Khin Nyunt was ousted by junta leader, Senior General Than Shwe. Because of the uncertain political atmosphere, a KNU delegation that had traveled to Rangoon to formalize the ceasefire and to discuss the ground rules to prevent further clashes between both sides was forced to return without participating in any talks. Since then, it has not been clear if the new generals are interested in the continuation of peace talks.

The fragile "gentleman's ceasefire" is now one year old. Looking back, what are the benefits and what has been happening on the ground behind the talks?

Despite the verbal ceasefire, fighting between the two sides continues all over KNU controlled areas, and the situation has not improved for thousands of Karen civilians who have been uprooted from their homes and have suffered human rights abuses under the repressive regime for decades.

US based Human Rights Watch describes Burma as "one of the most repressive countries in Asia." It says that the Burmese army continues to commit gross abuses against civilians, particularly in its campaigns against ethnic minorities in which the army engages in summary executions, torture, and the rape of women and girls.

David Taw said, "The ceasefire has been 50% beneficial and 50% detrimental" Padoh Mahn Sha Lanpan, General Secretary of the KNU said, "There are some benefits in the sense that fighting takes place less now." There is currently no major military offensive, but the SPDC troops are carrying out operations in Karen areas in order to gain more control over the areas or to gain "power over the land". On the other hand, for many Karen civilians the situation did not improved and some things are getting worse such as food availability and health care.

According to a source in the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the military wing of the KNU, in 2004 there were 169 clashes between Karen soldiers and Burmese troops. In 2003 before the verbal ceasefire agreement, there were 639 clashes. The analysis from the KNU leaders was that the clashes have been continuing because clear ground rules have not been agreed or set.

According to a relief group, the Free Burma Rangers (FBR), Burmese troops started their operations against Karen villagers in Nyaunglynbin district, northern Karen state, from November. More than 5,000 people were displaced in that district and about 20,000 baskets of their rice were destroyed or burnt down. The SPDC troops also carried out operations in Taungoo district, next to Nyaunglynbin.

Regarding Burmese Army operations in Nyaunglynbin, David Taw said that the KNU has sent a protest letters to the generals. Padoh Mahn Sha added that the SPDC gave no response that they will halt operations against Karen civilians. He said that the SPDC used to point out that this is part of their regular military activities.

Although there was no major offensive during the ceasefire agreement, three KNLA bases in three brigades were attacked by Burmese troops. The latest attacked was the base of KNLA battalion 201 during Karen New Year Day celebrations on January 10. Following the attack, over 380 Karen villagers crossed to Thailand. It prompted increased distrust towards the junta in the KNU. Padoh Mahn Sha told the Irrawaddy that They [the junta] havent take our ceasefire agreement seriously although they keep on declaring (its existence),

The resettlement of thousands of displaced villagers, from forced relocation sites and from hiding places in the jungle, to their homes was on the agenda for previous talks but there has not yet been specific discussion on it.

According to Thailand Burma Border Consortium, a humanitarian organization for refugees and displaced Burmese people, in October 2004, over 190,000 internally displaced Karen people were living in forced relocation sites and in free fire areas in Eastern Burma due to SPDC forced relocation programs and operations to eradicate the insurgents.

Since the talks, human rights abuses against civilians have continued all over KNU controlled areas and indeed are worse in some areas according to relief workers.

A FBR team leader Ti Mad Dog said, "The Burmese Army troops operations in Nyaunglynbin left thousands of people hungry. There are food shortages...The coming year the situation will worsen" he predicts. "The political game is playing on the table, but under the table people can play what they want." He added that, "The SPDC agrees to talk with KNU just to show good face to the international community, but inside their heart they are still holding the old system to oppress the Karen people and are not interested in peace for the country."

A villager told Free Burma Rangers "I was very happy about my leaders making a cease fire and believed in it. I made a large farm and now I have lost everything."

In Tenasserim division over 80 rice plantations in the south of Tavoy were ruined during last November harvest because the army did not allow people in forced relocation sites to go to their rice fields.

A relief worker who does not want to be named said, based on reports he got from different areas, that the human rights abuses have not decrease but it were most likely getting worse. He was particularly concerned about people being forced to serve as porters to carrying military supplies, especially in Nyaunglynbin and Taungoo district.

Karen Revoltuion Day Celebrations

A member of Committee for Internally Displaced Karen People (CIDKP) who spoke with anonymity said, "In general the population of internally displaced people is not increasing. In some districts such as Mutraw, we can say that the situation is a little bit stable compared to before the talks." He said people could get more space for making rice plantation. But, for Saw Htee Township in Nyaunglynbin people face more Burmese troops operations against them."

He said, "We can say that for 20 to 30 percent of Karen population along the eastern border, the suffering is getting worse. About 50 to 60 percent can do farming. It means that people do not have to move many times like before. For example before people had to move 4 to 5 times in a year and now they only have to move 2 to 3 times."

He feared that it will be worse if the ceasefire breaks and major fighting resumes. He said that the situation would be like the military offensive in 1997/98 that saw thousands of refugees flee to Thailand, while thousands of others were forcibly moved to relocation sites.

For the coming year and the future, Padoh Mahn Sha said the KNU would try to bring political dialogue. In order for political dialogue to happen, "both internal and external political pressure on the military government is required.

First Negotiation: KNU-AFPFL (Anti-Fascist People Freedom League) government under Prime Minister U Nu. April 1949. A ceasefire at Insein is welcomed by former KNU president Saw Ba U Kyi. Fighting resumed on April 9, 1949.

Second Negotiation: Secret peace talks with the caretaker Government under General Ne Win. February 1960, Rangoon. Between the KNU's General Kaw Htoo, Sgaw Ler Taw, Bo Kyin Pe (aka Koe Doh) and Care Taker Government Brigadier Aung Gyi, Aung Shwe and Col Maung Maung. The negotiations broke after ten days. The caretaker government stated that it would only consider the Karen national questions if the KNU entered the "legal fold."

Third Negotiation: Three Party talks. The KNPP (Karenni), KNU (Karen) and NMSP (Mon) - the Revolutionary Council under General Ne Win. August 1963, Rangoon. The negotiation broke down in November 14, 1963 after the Revolutionary Council demanded unconditional surrender from the parties.

Fourth Negotiation: December 1995- November 1996. Four official rounds of peace conferences between the KNU and State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC). Key speakers from the KNU side were Padoh Kli Say, Padoh Mahn Sha Lanpan, General Tamlar Baw On the SLORC side major speakers were Col Kyaw Win, Col Kyaw Thien, Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, and Col Thein Shwe. The KNU rejected the proposal by SLORC demanding the KNU to enter 'legal fold'. The SLORC ignored the KNU proposal for a fifth round of talks and started a major military offensive against the KNU in Mergui-Tavoy and Doo Plya Ya districts.

Fifth Negotiation: KNU-SPDC November 2003-January 15, 2004, a KNU delegation led by General Saw Bo Mya, met with top SPDC leaders, including General Khin Nyunt in Rangoon and a "gentleman's ceasefire" was agreed. October 18, 2004 a KNU's delegation headed by Padoh Htoo Htoo Lay left for Rangoon. The meeting was cancelled after General Khin Nyunt was dismissed.