The situation is quiet at the moment. UWSA proposed a cease fire to Col. Yord Sek, SSA-South leader, on the 4th of this month. But he replied that he will only discuss with Panghsang UWSA headquarters (ie: UWSA’s Supreme Commander, Bao Youxiang) not with Wei Hsuehkang. Some border sources told us that over 1000 Wa soldiers were missing, some died, some were wounded and some ran-away. Now, the UWSA also faces the problem of a lack of ammunition to continue fighting.

BI: Do you know what the real reasons were behind the UWSA offensive against the SSA-South’s base in April 2005?

From the analysis of experts, the UWSA offensive is for the benefit of the drug trafficking route to Ho Mong (former stronghold of MTA), because Loi Taileng is on the way and SSA-South is an obstacle for UWSA.

BI: What will be the consequences of the reunification between the SSNA and the SSA-South?

It is the way that the SPDC wanted to be. Fighting seems to be their strong point. The situation is pushing the Shan State National Army (Col. Sai Yi) to inevitably rejoin the civil war, or to surrender, or to join the SPDC as Special Police or militia. But any of these changes will benefit Shan people or even SSA-South in the long term. I can’t imagine how many people will suffer if fighting resumes.

BI: Do you know approximately how many soldiers the combined SSA-South and SSNA have?

I am not sure of the number. But at the moment there is heavy fighting between the SSNA (Col. Sai Yi troops) against the UWSA at Mong Pan (north of Loi Taileng).

BI: Do you think that other cease-fire groups in Shan State and in other ethnic areas will follow SSNA’s move and rejoin the armed struggle?

The ceasefire groups in Shan State that are committed will have to hold their arms again. The other ceasefire groups in Burma such as the Kachin Independence Army or the New Mon State Party clearly announced that they are holding arms for peaceful solution of Burma conflict, if not, they will not give up.

BI: What is your opinion about the declaration of independence that a group of Shan elders declared in mid-April 2005?

The SPDC has to be blamed, and it is a signal of frustration. These elders are the ones who love Shan people. But they don’t have mandate from the people and have no political background. This declaration has a negative impact over the movement of federalism. Their declaration becomes one good reason for SPDC to launch offensives and ethnic cleansing. An incident happened in a village tract at Lai Kha Township, Central Shan State, on 29th April during a traditional ordination ceremony. The SSA-South urged villagers to wear SSA uniform for showing support to the Interim Shan Government (nb: created by the Shan elders group the same day the independence was declared). Before it was over, SPDC surrounded the village and 8 villagers who tried to escape were shot and died on the spot. Many were also beaten by SPDC troop. Many villagers are now fleeing to Thailand. Some are camping at the border and some are on their way. It happened several times since independence was declared.

BI: In the light of all these recent events, what can we expect for the future of Shan State and its people?

It can be seen as the final mission of SPDC to wipe out Shan resistance, since SPDC doesn’t want to open dialogue with the opposition and arrested Shan National League for Democracy leaders. The reunification of the SSA-South with the SSNA will be one reason for the launching of a massive SPDC offensive. The war will break out and only the suffering of the people will follow. Now, many people are seeking refuge in Thailand. So, surviving for hope seems to be the best way for the people.